{
  "artifact_schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "model_family": "role_relative_15_minute_resource_performance",
  "display_name": "15-minute resource performance",
  "publication_status": "validated_narrow_descriptive_view",
  "model_id": "player-performance-v1-b68f5668d226",
  "model_hash": "b68f5668d2268752127ae2359c744d589f9847fda4357f486b3902b1df4d5c25",
  "model_hash_scope": "canonical public player-role coefficient snapshot, predeclared configuration, chronological splits, and frozen-test metrics",
  "grain": "one stable player ID by canonical role",
  "source_contract": {
    "provider": "Oracle's Elixir",
    "source": "oe",
    "datacompleteness": "complete",
    "years": [
      2025,
      2026
    ],
    "identity_key": "provider playerid",
    "name_is_identity": false,
    "selection_audit": {
      "input_rows": 163340,
      "selected_complete_oe_rows": 150610,
      "outside_year_window_rows": 0,
      "non_oe_rows": 0,
      "incomplete_rows": 12730
    }
  },
  "estimand": "Descriptive role-relative 15-minute resource performance: the equal-weight mean of training-only robust standardized gold, experience, and creep-score differentials at 15 minutes.",
  "target_components": [
    "gold differential at 15 minutes",
    "experience differential at 15 minutes",
    "creep-score differential at 15 minutes"
  ],
  "target_combination": "equal-weight mean after training-only robust standardization within role, league, and patch with declared fallbacks",
  "roles": [
    "top",
    "jng",
    "mid",
    "bot",
    "sup"
  ],
  "effective_sample": {
    "eligible_role_matchups": 72801,
    "stable_identity_matchups": 72801,
    "published_player_role_rows": 3147,
    "test_player_rows": 35062
  },
  "fit_through": "2026-03-31 23:10:39+00:00",
  "test_window": {
    "start": "2026-04-01 08:11:43+00:00",
    "end": "2026-07-18 16:33:48+00:00"
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "methods": [
      "hutchinson_gaussian_ridge_covariance_12_probes"
    ],
    "conservative_z": 1.645,
    "lower_bound": "mean minus 1.645 times the local Gaussian ridge standard deviation",
    "interpretation": "prior-conditioned local coefficient uncertainty; not causal uncertainty and not a full Bayesian posterior"
  },
  "test_metrics": {
    "rows": 35062,
    "rmse": 1.0091657964616845,
    "mae": 0.784639038152443,
    "r2": 0.13440121596787202,
    "spearman": 0.3477942690888258,
    "zero_baseline_rmse": 1.0846864220727568,
    "relative_rmse_lift": 0.06962438551296503
  },
  "context_only_test_metrics": {
    "rows": 35062,
    "rmse": 1.0307084399755169,
    "mae": 0.8013072360974234,
    "r2": 0.0970509257959955,
    "spearman": 0.29737195674924044,
    "zero_baseline_rmse": 1.0846864220727568,
    "relative_rmse_lift": 0.04976367455037551
  },
  "player_incremental_test_contrast": {
    "rows": 35062,
    "calendar_day_blocks": 102,
    "candidate_rmse": 1.0091657964616847,
    "baseline_rmse": 1.0307084399755166,
    "relative_rmse_lift": 0.020900812177635484,
    "ci_low": 0.01736419159375319,
    "ci_high": 0.02443795825066281,
    "confidence_level": 0.95,
    "bootstrap_replicates": 5000,
    "resampling_unit": "calendar_day"
  },
  "non_estimands": [
    "causal player skill",
    "match-win probability",
    "win contribution",
    "roster-independent player value",
    "complete-game performance"
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "The target covers only 15-minute resource performance.",
    "The target is observational and can reflect draft, lane, and team context.",
    "Provider numeric patch values can lose trailing-zero precision.",
    "Gaussian ridge uncertainty is an approximation, not a full Bayesian posterior.",
    "Player/team/champion effects remain prior-sensitive when exposure is collinear.",
    "GRID-only rows are excluded because the target fields are OE-derived."
  ],
  "research_anchors": [
    "SIDO: arXiv:2403.04873",
    "PandaSkill: arXiv:2501.10049"
  ],
  "ranking": {
    "scope": "within canonical role",
    "score": "lower_bound",
    "ties": "minimum competition rank on exact unrounded values"
  },
  "validation_artifact": "features/player_performance_validation.json"
}