{
  "version": 1,
  "method": "logit = a + b*(mu_diff/400); C=0.5 L2; fit on time holdout train only",
  "note": "Player \u03bc gaps understate classic 400 WR; logistic b>ln(10) maps them to empirical fav WR. Fit on time-train only (C=0.5 L2).",
  "team": {
    "name": "team",
    "intercept": 0.1472901679809866,
    "coef": 2.3762453579039664,
    "coef_vs_classic": 1.03199024658591,
    "temperature_400": 387.60056243099496,
    "train_brier": 0.21972517780616982,
    "train_brier_classic": 0.22079074908378812,
    "train_auc": 0.6990315983286773,
    "n_train": 10353,
    "holdout": {
      "n": 1849,
      "brier_cal": 0.22018227869521573,
      "brier_classic": 0.220989224856098,
      "auc_cal": 0.6916197091587813,
      "auc_classic": 0.6916197091587813,
      "log_loss_cal": 0.6308418442937451
    },
    "holdout_band_40_50": {
      "n": 85,
      "fav_wr_actual": 0.5411764705882353,
      "fav_p_cal_mean": 0.602936360402448,
      "fav_p_classic_mean": 0.5651408983361593
    }
  },
  "player": {
    "name": "player",
    "intercept": 0.1316583753036645,
    "coef": 3.64257404548849,
    "coef_vs_classic": 1.5819498078796557,
    "temperature_400": 252.85252288511884,
    "train_brier": 0.22181864778650076,
    "train_brier_classic": 0.22575327461186848,
    "train_auc": 0.6894664565974398,
    "n_train": 10353,
    "holdout": {
      "n": 1849,
      "brier_cal": 0.2216525867996031,
      "brier_classic": 0.22497623242053183,
      "auc_cal": 0.6851519769406149,
      "auc_classic": 0.6851519769406149,
      "log_loss_cal": 0.6337595080591274
    },
    "holdout_band_40_50": {
      "n": 139,
      "fav_wr_actual": 0.6906474820143885,
      "fav_p_cal_mean": 0.6320371415270821,
      "fav_p_classic_mean": 0.5643354156157764
    }
  },
  "strength_blend": {
    "intercept": -2.4748904835014343,
    "coef_team": 2.847631397728932,
    "coef_player": 2.0748495597323946,
    "holdout_brier": 0.21828605874874624,
    "holdout_brier_60_40": 0.2184345192487471,
    "holdout_brier_team": 0.22018227869521573,
    "holdout_brier_player": 0.2216525867996031,
    "holdout_auc": 0.6981748591274763,
    "n_train": 10353,
    "n_holdout": 1849
  }
}