{
  "schema_version": "scryglass.grubs.article.v1",
  "publication_id": "void-grubs-contest-or-leave.patch-26.11",
  "estimand": "article_opportunity_cost_sensitivity",
  "units": "edge values are percentage points of associational map-win probability; p_star values are probabilities",
  "mechanics": {
    "patch": "26.11+",
    "grub_cash_gold": 90.0,
    "brief_touch_seconds": 8,
    "touch_true_damage": 256,
    "first_plate_hp": 900,
    "first_plate_gold": 120,
    "brief_touch_progress_gold_equivalent": 34.13,
    "objective_gold_equivalent": 124.13,
    "valuation": "upper_bound_plate_progress_equivalent_not_guaranteed_gold",
    "hunger_mite_included": false
  },
  "model": {
    "conversion": "side_neutral_gold10_associational_logit",
    "intercept": 0.1611182873782888,
    "gold_coefficient": 0.000666860223609559,
    "fight_swing_gold": 600.0,
    "secure_if_win": 1.0,
    "secure_if_lose": 0.0
  },
  "reference_knobs": {
    "baseline_gold": 0.0,
    "objective_gold_equivalent": 124.13,
    "two_wave_leave_farm_gold": 241.33,
    "fight_swing_gold": 600.0
  },
  "p_star": 0.582420118348,
  "p_star_pct": 58.24,
  "edge_at_50_pp": -1.94,
  "interpretation": "Within this fixed sensitivity comparison, contest and two-wave leave have equal modeled value at p_star. This is not an identified action threshold or universal shotcalling rule.",
  "curve": [
    {
      "p_win_fight": 0.15,
      "ev_contest_pp": -8.24,
      "ev_leave_pp": 1.94,
      "edge_contest_minus_leave_pp": -10.18,
      "model_preference": "LEAVE"
    },
    {
      "p_win_fight": 0.2,
      "ev_contest_pp": -7.06,
      "ev_leave_pp": 1.94,
      "edge_contest_minus_leave_pp": -9.0,
      "model_preference": "LEAVE"
    },
    {
      "p_win_fight": 0.25,
      "ev_contest_pp": -5.89,
      "ev_leave_pp": 1.94,
      "edge_contest_minus_leave_pp": -7.83,
      "model_preference": "LEAVE"
    },
    {
      "p_win_fight": 0.3,
      "ev_contest_pp": -4.71,
      "ev_leave_pp": 1.94,
      "edge_contest_minus_leave_pp": -6.65,
      "model_preference": "LEAVE"
    },
    {
      "p_win_fight": 0.35,
      "ev_contest_pp": -3.53,
      "ev_leave_pp": 1.94,
      "edge_contest_minus_leave_pp": -5.47,
      "model_preference": "LEAVE"
    },
    {
      "p_win_fight": 0.4,
      "ev_contest_pp": -2.35,
      "ev_leave_pp": 1.94,
      "edge_contest_minus_leave_pp": -4.29,
      "model_preference": "LEAVE"
    },
    {
      "p_win_fight": 0.45,
      "ev_contest_pp": -1.18,
      "ev_leave_pp": 1.94,
      "edge_contest_minus_leave_pp": -3.12,
      "model_preference": "LEAVE"
    },
    {
      "p_win_fight": 0.5,
      "ev_contest_pp": 0.0,
      "ev_leave_pp": 1.94,
      "edge_contest_minus_leave_pp": -1.94,
      "model_preference": "LEAVE"
    },
    {
      "p_win_fight": 0.6,
      "ev_contest_pp": 2.35,
      "ev_leave_pp": 1.94,
      "edge_contest_minus_leave_pp": 0.41,
      "model_preference": "CONTEST"
    },
    {
      "p_win_fight": 0.7,
      "ev_contest_pp": 4.71,
      "ev_leave_pp": 1.94,
      "edge_contest_minus_leave_pp": 2.77,
      "model_preference": "CONTEST"
    },
    {
      "p_win_fight": 0.75,
      "ev_contest_pp": 5.89,
      "ev_leave_pp": 1.94,
      "edge_contest_minus_leave_pp": 3.95,
      "model_preference": "CONTEST"
    }
  ],
  "by_leave_farm_F": [
    {
      "label": "no_farm",
      "leave_farm_gold": 0.0,
      "p_star_at_parity": 0.412712,
      "p_star_at_parity_pct": 41.27,
      "p_star_at_B_plus_1183": 0.455746,
      "p_star_at_B_plus_1183_pct": 45.57
    },
    {
      "label": "one_wave",
      "leave_farm_gold": 120.67,
      "p_star_at_parity": 0.497566,
      "p_star_at_parity_pct": 49.76,
      "p_star_at_B_plus_1183": 0.5413,
      "p_star_at_B_plus_1183_pct": 54.13
    },
    {
      "label": "two_waves",
      "leave_farm_gold": 241.33,
      "p_star_at_parity": 0.58242,
      "p_star_at_parity_pct": 58.24,
      "p_star_at_B_plus_1183": 0.624353,
      "p_star_at_B_plus_1183_pct": 62.44
    }
  ],
  "by_precontest_gold_B_two_wave_leave": [
    {
      "B_gold": 0.0,
      "leave_farm_gold": 241.33,
      "objective_gold": 124.13,
      "p_star": 0.58242,
      "p_star_pct": 58.24
    },
    {
      "B_gold": -500.0,
      "leave_farm_gold": 241.33,
      "objective_gold": 124.13,
      "p_star": 0.563617,
      "p_star_pct": 56.36
    },
    {
      "B_gold": -1000.0,
      "leave_farm_gold": 241.33,
      "objective_gold": 124.13,
      "p_star": 0.54554,
      "p_star_pct": 54.55
    },
    {
      "B_gold": -2000.0,
      "leave_farm_gold": 241.33,
      "objective_gold": 124.13,
      "p_star": 0.514592,
      "p_star_pct": 51.46
    },
    {
      "B_gold": 500.0,
      "leave_farm_gold": 241.33,
      "objective_gold": 124.13,
      "p_star": 0.60099,
      "p_star_pct": 60.1
    },
    {
      "B_gold": 1000.0,
      "leave_farm_gold": 241.33,
      "objective_gold": 124.13,
      "p_star": 0.618411,
      "p_star_pct": 61.84
    },
    {
      "B_gold": 1183.0,
      "leave_farm_gold": 241.33,
      "objective_gold": 124.13,
      "p_star": 0.624353,
      "p_star_pct": 62.44
    },
    {
      "B_gold": 1200.0,
      "leave_farm_gold": 241.33,
      "objective_gold": 124.13,
      "p_star": 0.624891,
      "p_star_pct": 62.49
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Gold-at-10 to map-win is an associational conversion, not a causal effect.",
    "Fight-win probability is exogenous rather than estimated from champions, position, vision, cooldowns, or player form.",
    "The 34.13g Touch term is an upper-bound plate-progress equivalent, not guaranteed immediate gold.",
    "The comparison does not identify a live action policy and should not be used as a universal contest threshold."
  ]
}