Scryglass — LoL research by koi

Team rows are time-varying series Bradley–Terry estimates. Player Dual Elo is a shared team-outcome signal with identifiability warnings. The separate 15-minute resource-performance view is role-relative and descriptive, not a general skill, win-contribution, or win-probability rating.

Within-role score: the equal-weight mean of training-only robust standardized gold, experience, and creep-score differentials at 15 minutes, adjusted for observed champion, team, league, and patch context. Fit through 2026-03-31; team and league columns are the last fit-period observation, not a current-roster claim.

SearchMin fit maps

RoleScores and ranks are comparable only within the same canonical role.

Frozen test: 35,062 player-map rows, RMSE 1.0092 versus 1.0847 for the zero baseline. Player identity improves RMSE over the context-only model by 2.09%; calendar-day bootstrap 95% interval 1.74%–2.44%. This validates a narrow predictive signal, not causal skill.

Role-relative 15-minute resource performance. Exact tied lower-bound values share competition rank.
Role rank	Player	Team at fit-through	League at fit-through	Lower-bound score	Fitted score	Local uncertainty	Fit maps
1	🇵🇱Tracyn	team-heretics	LEC	0.509	0.698	0.115	146
2	🇨🇦Zamudo	nrg	NACL	0.484	0.707	0.135	44
3	🇰🇷Rooster	shifters	LEC	0.445	0.604	0.096	87
4	🇩🇰Szygenda	bk-rog-esports	LFL	0.417	0.630	0.129	90
5	Zest	los	CBLOL	0.375	0.566	0.116	73
6	🇰🇷Mihile	team-heretics-academy	EM	0.337	0.454	0.071	111
7	🇺🇦Maynter	natus-vincere	LEC	0.301	0.470	0.103	151
8	🇸🇪Kryze	solary	EM	0.293	0.525	0.141	92
9	🇨🇿bobista	verdant	EM	0.285	0.462	0.108	107
10	🇰🇷Zeus	hanwha-life-esports	LCK	0.283	0.524	0.147	183
12	🇹🇼Driver	ctbc-flying-oyster	WORLDS	0.259	0.469	0.128	65
13	🇩🇪Addusto	team-insidious	HLL	0.247	0.379	0.080	88
14	🇵🇱Kozi	ucam-esports	EM	0.246	0.443	0.119	120
15	🇵🇱Color	anubis-gaming	AL	0.240	0.436	0.119	48
16	🇧🇪Bwipo	witchcraft	EM	0.223	0.427	0.124	96
17	🇩🇪JNX	eintracht-spandau	EM	0.222	0.365	0.087	110
18	🇷🇸Nenad	team-insidious	HLL	0.221	0.451	0.140	66
19	🇫🇷Badlulu	ici-japon-corp-esport	LFL	0.213	0.459	0.149	90
20	Guardian	t1-esports-academy-rookies	LAS	0.206	0.362	0.095	112
21	🇻🇳Sparda	saigon-dino	LCP	0.203	0.493	0.176	47

#1TracynTop · team-heretics · 146 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1150.509
#2ZamudoTop · nrg · 44 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1350.484
#3RoosterTop · shifters · 87 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.0960.445
#4SzygendaTop · bk-rog-esports · 90 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1290.417
#5ZestTop · los · 73 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1160.375
#6MihileTop · team-heretics-academy · 111 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.0710.337
#7MaynterTop · natus-vincere · 151 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1030.301
#8KryzeTop · solary · 92 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1410.293
#9bobistaTop · verdant · 107 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1080.285
#10ZeusTop · hanwha-life-esports · 183 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1470.283
#12DriverTop · ctbc-flying-oyster · 65 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1280.259
#13AddustoTop · team-insidious · 88 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.0800.247
#14KoziTop · ucam-esports · 120 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1190.246
#15ColorTop · anubis-gaming · 48 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1190.240
#16BwipoTop · witchcraft · 96 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1240.223
#17JNXTop · eintracht-spandau · 110 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.0870.222
#18NenadTop · team-insidious · 66 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1400.221
#19BadluluTop · ici-japon-corp-esport · 90 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1490.213
#20GuardianTop · t1-esports-academy-rookies · 112 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.0950.206
#21SpardaTop · saigon-dino · 47 fit maps · local uncertainty 0.1760.203

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Not estimated: causal player skill, match-win probability, win contribution, roster-independent player value, complete-game performance. Model player-performance-v1-b68f5668d226; hash b68f5668d226.