How often do you need to win the river fight before contesting beats leaving for two waves of farm? At even gold that bar sits at 58.24%1. At a coin-flip fight the model still prefers leave by +1.94pp2.
The Patch 26.11+ objective term is 124.13g3: 90g cash plus an upper-bound plate-progress equivalent. The progress term is not guaranteed immediate gold.
Interactive figure unavailable: the current publication data did not pass validation.
| Fight-win chance | Contest value | Leave value | Edge | Model preference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | -8.24pp | +1.94pp | -10.18pp | Leave higher in model |
| 20% | -7.06pp | +1.94pp | -9.00pp | Leave higher in model |
| 25% | -5.89pp | +1.94pp | -7.83pp | Leave higher in model |
| 30% | -4.71pp | +1.94pp | -6.65pp | Leave higher in model |
| 35% | -3.53pp | +1.94pp | -5.47pp | Leave higher in model |
| 40% | -2.35pp | +1.94pp | -4.29pp | Leave higher in model |
| 45% | -1.18pp | +1.94pp | -3.12pp | Leave higher in model |
| 50% | 0.00pp | +1.94pp | -1.94pp | Leave higher in model |
| 60% | +2.35pp | +1.94pp | +0.41pp | Contest higher in model |
| 70% | +4.71pp | +1.94pp | +2.77pp | Contest higher in model |
| 75% | +5.89pp | +1.94pp | +3.95pp | Contest higher in model |
Limits on the estimate
The gold-at-10 conversion behind the article estimand is associational4— it converts the fixed gold scenarios into modeled map-win association. It does not make this comparison causal or estimate a live fight from champions, position, vision, cooldowns, or player form.
- Gold-at-10 to map-win is an associational conversion, not a causal effect.
- Fight-win probability is exogenous rather than estimated from champions, position, vision, cooldowns, or player form.
- The 34.13g Touch term is an upper-bound plate-progress equivalent, not guaranteed immediate gold.
- The comparison does not identify a live action policy and should not be used as a universal contest threshold.